Tuesday, June 5, 2018

YOY INCREASE HAS BEEN IN THE 5% TO 7% RANGE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS

CoreLogic is located in Irvine, CA.  The headline summarizes real estate price trends the last couple of years.  
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for April. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for March. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports April Home Prices Up, Washington State Increased 12.8 Percent
CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2018, which shows home prices rose both year-over-year and month-over-month. Home prices increased nationally by 6.9 percent year over year from April 2017 to April 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1.2 percent in April 2018 – compared with March 2018 – according to the CoreLogic HPI.

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from April 2018 to April 2019. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to rise 0.2 percent in May 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“The best antidote for rising home prices is additional supply,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “New construction has failed to keep up with and meet new housing growth or replace existing inventory. More construction of for-sale and rental housing will alleviate housing cost pressures.”
emphasis added

CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase has been in the 5% to 7% range for the last couple of years.  This is towards the top end of that range.  The year-over-year comparison has been positive for over six consecutive years since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2018/06/corelogic-house-prices-up-69-year-over.html#wge3wkcPzxUOftTF.99

Monday, March 26, 2018

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

I subscribe to a couple of sites.  Can't afford much more than a few bucks a month.  The value from two of the sites is quite good.  One of the sites has mini-forums that covers different topics with real estate being one of them.  Gary North gets others to answer and advise on the real estate forum that might be outside his range of expertise.  I thought I would share with you a few resources and comments from it.  John Schaub mans his real estate forum.  He's written a couple of books but his main strategy for buying property is one per year and rent them out.  As you accumulate one property per year or even every 3 years, by the time you're in your 70s and 80s you won't have to worry about rent for the rental income from the approximately 20 properties that you own will pay for your mortgage on the place where you live.  That forum is a great source for getting practical answers with traction.  In other words, they work to solve problems and disputes between owners and tenants.  

John Schaub's books are here.

A newbie real estate investor asked a question at North's site.  Here is his question.  "Dr. North, and others experienced in real estate investing, where would you advise beginners to start? Mobile homes? Billboards?"

And what follows are the replies to his question from a couple of forum members.  Neither of the replies, by the way, came from John Schaub. 

REPLY #1
1.  Join a local REIA (real estate investors association).  LA County and Orange County.
2.  Read John Schaub books.
3.  Study Bigger Pockets.
4.  Study Cash Flow Depot.
5.  Consider attending a John Schaub seminar or any of those given by Pete Fortunato.  This guy is the kingpin; he's been around since 1965.  That kind of longevity does happen without helping out hundreds if not thousands of people.  
6.  Gary Johnston [no, not that goofy candidate who ran on the Libertarian ticket with Weld back in 2016] offers good ones for beginners and veterans. Six months of study will give you a good answer to your question.
REPLY #2
I did everything on the above list except bigger pockets and Gary Johnston. 
Schaub runs a great seminar. No fluff.
Mobile homes wound up being my space. I started with the industry classic, Deals on Wheels by Lonnie Scruggs. Mobile homes are a great place to start if you live close by and can deal with more management headaches. The up front investment is smaller, and the profits are higher. The downside is that its tough to flip them and sell retail... banks are still wary. Gotta do it the Lonnie way (as lease-options today due to the SAFE Act). If you go the mobile home route, plan to be in the business a decade or more. 
So for those of you or those of us who are looking for long-term investments, real estate is still the way to go.  Gary North's monthly subscription I believ is $15, which is an incredible bargain.   

Deals on Wheels by Lonnie Scruggs  



And Building Wealth One House at a Time by John Schaub.  

Here is another real estate marketing strategy.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

KNOW A NEIGHBORHOOD BEFORE YOU MOVE INTO IT

This was helpful.

This was a nice review of his life.  Cool.  

NEXT HOUSING CRISIS: A HISTORIC SHORTAGE OF NEW HOMES

WAL MARTS ARE IN HIGH CRIME AREAS



This seems like a no-brainer and it is, but it is helpful to be reminded of it because we are constantly persuaded of its opposite.  People do love Wal-Mart.  I love Wal-Mart.  When you need something now and you can't wait 24 to 48 hours from Amazon and you need it cheap, Wal-Mart is the place.  Wal-Mart is second only to Amazon for prices as far as I can tell.  But know too that though Wal-Marts are built in formerly industrial corridors, meaning close or in to poor neighborhoods, that the stores can be a place for crime, including violent crime.  Even now I am mincing my words.  RV owners, rather folks living out of their RVs and campers, park overnight in Wal-Mart lots.  I don't know if it is they who are responsible for the crime or someone else.  This is the case in Las Vegas. 

The reporter mentioned the Cheyenne Condos on Civic Center Drive as being one of the hotspots for police or 911 calls.  Not good.  The condos are located northeast of Las Vegas.  See the map. 



Well, if the media had their way, all of Vegas is one big crime zone.  The reporter is covering The 10 Highest Crime Areas Off the Vegas Strip.  What about the Strip?  No crime there I guess.  She cites #10 the WalMart shopping center called Hyde Park at Arville Street and West Charleston Blvd.  




Next is the Shelert Island Apartments at Swenson and Twain.



Next with over 800 calls for service was Sunrise Hospital.  No surprise there.  These places can turn violent when someone shows up to see a loved one die either from misapplication of some protocol or incompetence (nah, that never happens as prestigious hospitals, does it?) or from lethal wounds.  Located at 3186 South Maryland Parkway in Las Vegas.  So far the local news is demonizing the whole east side of Vegas.  What is this, a political campaign for federal reconstruction dollars?



Next is the Hamptons Apartments at 3070 South Nellis Avenue.  They don't look too bad to me.  Maybe it is the typical gassing that the media does on the heads of newcomers, outsiders, and the unsuspecting. 



Another WalMart at Boulder Highway and Nellis Boulevard.

What's next?

12 Worst Places to Live in U.S.



1.  Camden, NJ.  560% more crime than the national average.
2.  Detroit, MI.  Highest rate of violent crime of any city over 200k.
3.  Cleveland, OH.  Harsh weather.  Average 60 inches of snow.
4.  New Haven, Connecticut, home to Yalue University.
5.  Memphis, TN.  20% of its inhabitants living below poverty line.
6.  Stockton, CA.
7.  Birmingham, Alabama.  1400 are victims of violent crime due to high poverty and drug trade.
8.  New Orleans, LA. Murder capital of the country. 
9.  Oakland, CA.  Sstrong economy.  Home to 50 gangs.  High violent crime rate.  High traffic congestion and poor air quality.
10.  Modesto, CA.  #1 for car theft.  Unemployment is 13%.  Out of 200k residents, up to 10,000 are reported to be gang members.
11.  Reno, Nevada.  Economic decline.  39 annual crimes/1000 residents.
12.  St. Louis, Missouri.